The 2026 state elections coincide with a governor’s race (open due to Governor Bill Lee being term-limiteden.wikipedia.org) and a U.S. Senate race (Sen. Bill Hagerty up for re-election). These high-profile contests will drive voter turnout. A hot gubernatorial race, in particular, could boost engagement in down-ballot contests like state legislative races. If, for instance, Democrats run a strong campaign for governor, that might help their legislative candidates in urban/suburban districts. Conversely, strong Republican statewide candidates could further energize the GOP base. Additionally, 2026 is a midterm under a (presumably) Democratic president, which historically favors Republican turnout in Tennessee. All these factors mean the political climate in fall 2026 could either dampen or enhance any efforts at upsets.